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The Predictors: How a Band of Maverick Physicists Used Chaos Theory to Trade Their Way to a Fortune on Wall Street
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Amazon.com Review
Using a computer to beat Wall Street from afar is, arguably, the new American dream. While it will remain just that for most of us, an offbeat gang of academics turned financial wizards is showing it can be done. Led by acclaimed physicists Doyne Farmer and Norman Packard, the Santa Fe-based Prediction Company has proven since its 1991 founding in an adobe bungalow furnished with plastic lawn chairs and top-of-the-line Sun workstations that it is indeed possible to make millions in the world's financial markets by anticipating trends and developing software that automatically capitalizes on them. In The Predictors, Thomas A. Bass colorfully relates their tale of fiscal triumph--and reveals in the process how even an unorthodox group of antibusiness intellectuals in far-off New Mexico can make the world's biggest institutions sit up and take notice. Long esteemed in the scientific community, Farmer and Packard have become legendary in hacker circles since their failed attempt to beat the roulette tables in Las Vegas with toe-operated computers was chronicled in Bass's well-regarded 1985 book called The Eudaemonic Pie. This time, though, the two hit the jackpot with their cutting-edge computer programs and the company they created to trade German marks, Chicago commodities, Japanese treasury bonds, Texas oil futures, and New York securities. Bass's prose is a bit flowery at times, but his perceptive you-are-there account is nonetheless entertaining and sure to cement the pair's reputation as today's ultimate masters of "phynance," the successful, and now oft-copied, merger of physics and finance. --Howard Rothman
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From Library Journal
In 1991, physicists Doyne Farmer, Norman Packard, and Jim McGill established the Prediction Company in Santa Fe, NM, intending to use their knowledge of chaos theory (the study of complex systems) to develop predictive models and automated black-box systems for beating financial markets worldwide. That they succeeded is only part of the story, the more interesting part of this tale being its human side. In Wired contributor Bass's account, we see the primary characters deal with a broad array of charlatans and geniuses, learn from their successes and failures, grow to appreciate the problems inherent in traditional economic theory, and become adept businessmen and managers. Useful as a primer in chaos theory as well as the various challenges that face start-up firms and the complexity of financial markets, this marvelous story should interest readers in both public and academic libraries.-ANorman B. Hutcherson, Kern Cty. Lib., Bakersfield, CA Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc.
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Product details
Hardcover: 320 pages
Publisher: Henry Holt and Co.; 1st edition (November 2, 1999)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0805057560
ISBN-13: 978-0805057560
Product Dimensions:
6.1 x 1.1 x 9.3 inches
Shipping Weight: 10.4 ounces
Average Customer Review:
3.4 out of 5 stars
36 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#1,005,707 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
I can understand why some people might not love this book. It gets a bit meandering at times, and the timeline is somewhat nonlinear, which can make it difficult to follow the story at times. It also helps to have read Complexity by Mitchell Waldrop as a precursor. Beyond that, another difficulty arises with the way the detailed description of sometimes seemingly superficial matters such as the way people are dressed, as one other reviewer noted and I somewhat agree with. in other words, there are times in reading this book that one can get distracted. To add to this, it is not clear that any sane non-mathematical reader would want to read this book and expect to learn how to beat or predict the markets. On the other hand, it also doesn't seem that someone who is deeply scientific would want to read this book either, with its absence of equations and precise definitional technicality for explaining some of the more interesting foundational ideas such as fractals and neural networks. Instead, Bass is merely dropping clues as to how the world of finance actually works. Read between the lines, and one take is the Predictors dropoff point to either be cynical of all financial markets. But I think in a way his real point is that the business of prediction is messy and historically intertwined with everything from the history of the modern computing age and to the evolution of ever more abstract financial techniques that have lead us to bitcoin. That the Predictors would eventually make money ends up being besides the point.
Enjoyable account of scientists applying their knowledge to trading. The book is a little shallow, in terms of depth, since it neither describes the models or strategies in any detail nor gives much in the way of trading anecdotes. The best part of the book is the challenges the founders face as entrepreneurs-- raising capital and structuring a new business (compensation, responsibilities, juggling sales and modeling). Overall, an interesting read if you are in the industry, but probably a little slow for those who love Michael Lewis' work.
I loved it enough to re-read, something rare for me. I plan to read it a couple more times. I even made a pilgrimage to the Santa Fe institute to see where these guys hang out.It is set in a world of math, finance, brainiacs, and the great Southwest--all fun things!It's a much better book than Bass' other book about these guys, "Eudamonic Pie." The big caveat is that I read Waldrip's "Complexity" first. I can't imagine the book being nearly as much fun without that background.
Before Michael Lewis and his deserved bestseller Flash Boys, before the LTCM implosion in 1998 there were The Predictors. Gaining an understanding of modern financial markets and how our stock market currently works (or fails to work...) requires an understanding of how the Wall Street morality of "gaming the system," met the computer revolution. The Predictors is one important contribution to that understanding.
This book captures several components of a worthy story. It chronicles the pursuit by brilliant, seasoned, and spirited scientists to accomplish the seemingly impossible. It tells enough of their personal stories to make the pursuit interesting. It also includes enough technical detail to give the reader an idea of the complexity of their problem, and it gives an insight into the workings of the world's mysterious investment system.I believe the book would be worthy for anyone interested in those components and I highly recommend it as a testimony to the determination, intelligence, and knowledge of some people who make their fortunes in the high tech world. My only slight disappointment was that the ending left some questions unanswered, such as what next!
The Preidictors is a good book, easy read, entertaining but including enough detail to be interesting to the experienced trader. A bit light on the math and science behind the methodology, but that may be propietary and too technical for non math types anyway.
Interesting story of group that beat the market. I like to read about smart people doing something extraordinary.
Bass writes lucidly about science and the decidedly odd interface between Wall Streeters in Armani suits and Birkenstock-wearing science guys in the desert. An enjoyable, informative and entertaining read. His earlier work about the same crew and Vegas, Eudanomic Pie, is great too.
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